The Masters

We head to Augusta this week for the 2018 renewal of the US Masters – the venue where it all began for StattoBets.com just over a year ago, with Sergio Garcia delivering an excellent winner for us to kick off the golf service. Let’s hope we can reproduce that result with another winner this weekend – a task which should be somewhat easier than usual with the 10 places offered for e/w bets with Sky Bet and Coral.

What stats are critical to winning here?

In short, you need to be able to hit the greens with real regularity (GIR), scramble super efficiently if you miss (Scrambling) and have a solid putting average to be in with a shout here. Par 5 Performance is also crucial to winning this event – previous winners have almost always stretched their legs over the longer holes, while keeping your rounds clean and simple is also important – players who have ranked highly for bogey-avoidance almost always prosper.

As evidence for the importance of the Par Fives, the past 10 winners of this event have shot a combined (-6) on Par-3s, (-24) on Par-4s and a whopping (-86) on Par-5s! Eight of the last ten winners have ranked inside the Top 10 for GIR, while the same stat is true for Scrambling. Putting average is slightly less important, with the ranking of the past ten winners reading 12, 12, 1, 12, 28, 11, 8, 10, 7, 7. It’s important therefore, but not quite as important.

And what of the trends?

• Playing a full weekend at Augusta in the prior year is certainly one. Every winner back to Tiger Woods in 1996 had made the cut here the previous year.

• Each of the last ten winners were aged under 40 – not good news for Henrik Stenson, Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson

• None of the last 10 winners were in the World Top 30, and seven of those inside the Top 20

• Eight of the last 10 winners had posted at least a Top 20 finish at Augusta previously.

• Nine of the last 10 winners had posted at least a top 10 already that season, seven of whom had finished in the top three of an event, and five of whom had won an event that season.

Who are we picking?

Our first pick is from near the head of the market – Justin Thomas – who can be baced at 10/1 with the ten places, or slightly longer if you are willing to forego the extra insurance that brings. We’ll personally take the safe approach. Thomas fits the bill really nicely, occupying 2nd in the Official Golf Rankings. He’s the right sort of age, and has already won twice this season. He comes here in hot form having recent finishes of T9, 1, 2, 4. He also finished 22nd here last season on just his second visit. It’s also worth noting he ranks fifth for Par 5 Scoring on Tour, and 14th for Scrambling. He’s sure to be in the mix come the final day and looks a decent ew bet.

Next up is another at a shortish price – Justin Rose. The Brit is uber consistent, and will be hoping to go one better than a pair of runner-up finishes here in 2015 and 2017. Rose finished 3rd in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and T5th at the Valspar Championship. He also finished the end of last season strongly with three wins in his last six events. He ticks all our trend boxes nicely, and is currently ranked fifth in the world. Take the 12/1 e/w on Rose.

At slightly longer odds Paul Casey has some excellent course form here. He’s finished 6-4-6 in his last three appearances and has six Top 11 finishes in 11 starts. Casey has posted a win and three further Top 12 finishes in just six starts on the PGA Tour this season and ranks a handy 17th for GIR, 7th for Scrambling and 20th for Par 5 Performance. 20/1 is on offer.

At a similar price, Rickie Fowler is another who fits the profiles of previous winners pretty much perfectly. He’s been a little up and down this season in all honesty, but likes Augusta and has finished 5th, 12th and 11th in the last four years (with a Missed Cut in 2016). At 16/1 you are getting better than 3/1 about a top 10 finish on the e/w part and that has to appeal.

Finally, a slightly longer price is on offer for Marc Leishman, and the Australian is definitely value at that sort of price. He’s finished T7 (Arnold Palmer), T8 (Farmers Insurance) and T7 (Sentry Tournament of Champions) this season, so is more than capable. He ranked inside the Top 20, fits the age profile, made the cut last season and has previously posted a 4th place finish here.

1.5pts e/w Justin Thomas at 10/1 (10 places 1/5)

1pt e/w Justin Rose at 12/1 (10 places 1/5)

1pt e/w Paul Casey at 20/1 (10 places 1/5)

1.5pts e/w Rickie Fowler at 22/1 (8 places 1/5 - PP)

1pt e/w Marc Leishman at 40/1 (10 places 1/5)

#Golf