2:50 - Betway Mildmay Novices' Chase

Might Bite won this race as the 8/13 favourite last season, and that continued a 15 year trend of the winner going off at shorter than 7/1 in the betting. All of those winners had races within the last two months, and 12 of them were 7 or younger. 12 had finished fourth or better in their last outing, and 11 had been the Cheltenham Festival as part of their preparations. 24 of the last 27 winners had won over 3m+ previously, and 33 of the last 37 had won 2+ over fences.

Armed with those stats, we’re going to put a line through Terrefort – one of the only runners in the field without form over this sort of trip. There are plenty of reasons to suggest that he will make the trip, but there remains a doubt, so at the odds he can be discounted.

Instead preference goes to Ms Parfois who was kind to us at Cheltenham. She has good head-to-head records against a number of her rivals here today, and looks fairly weighted going off at less than 11st. She ticks all the trend boxes and looks a realistic contender at decent odds in this one.

1pt e/w Ms Parfois at 6/1 (3 places, ¼ odds Bet 365)

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