4:05 - Randox Health Topham Chase Handicap

A big old Handicap here, where you're getting 10/1 the field. History has shown that you want a horse who has raced over the last month (14/15 winners), and is aged 10 or younger (14/15). Unsurprisingly, most winners have come home in double figure prices, and the majority have carried 10-7 or less. There has only been one winner from 109 attempts from horses ages 11+, which is a clear negative against a couple in this.

Beau Bay looks a runner who continues to have something in hand against the handicapper, and has placed in eight of his 10 chase starts. He carries a touch over our trend point with 10-8 but it's close enough to ignore. There is every chance he will attempt to make all in this and given the other runners likely to join him at the front, there could be plenty of traffic for the more fancied participants to work past.

1pt e/w Beau Bay at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Skybet paying 6 places at 1/5 odds)

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