West Ham v Stoke

If you've been reading our columns recently you'll know all about our thoughts on loss aversion syndrome artificially raising the number of draws in Premier League clashes between sides in the bottom half. It's arguable that fewer games will meet the criteria as the season runs out of matches, with a number of clubs now safe from the drop, and with little to motivate them over the final few games.

As an article on advisor.bet summerises "The psychology behind this “loss aversion” is simple: humans hate to have things taken away from them. As such, if an outcome is framed as “losing”, sportsmen and women will perform extra-hard to avoid it." - for more on this have a read here:

http://advisor.bet/post/145490877021/why-players-perform-better-when-theyre-losing

So why are we talking about this rather than West Ham v Stoke? Well a simple look at the bottom of the table shows what is at stake in this match. Defeat for either side would be a big blow in their efforts to avoid the drop. Stoke simple cannot afford to lose, while the same could be said for West Ham given that Stoke would collect three points and begin to get back into the game. The 13/5 available on the draw therefore looks a decent shout in this one.

West Ham have drawn seven of 23 against bottom 14 sides (30.5%) and Stoke have drawn eight of 22 (36%), so both sides support the bet statistically, and this could be more likely than many of those earlier in the season.

The Hammers will hope to welcome back Andy Carroll, James Collins and Manuel Lanzini, but are likely to be without Sam Byran and Pedro Obiang, while Stoke are at full strength with the exception of Maxim Choupo-Moting.

Stoke will hope to end a four game losing run, but in fairness those defeats came against Arsenal, Everton, Man City and Spurs. Prior to that they had shared the points with Brighton, Leicester and Southampton.

1pt West Ham v Stoke to be a draw at 13/5 (Betway)

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