League One Best Bets

League One draws to a close on Saturday, and in truth, it could be something of an anti-climax with only a handful of teams left with anything to play for. The top two automatic spots have been sewn up by Wigan and Blackburn, but either could end up as Champions still, so that at least provides some excitement. As far as the play-offs are concerned, only Plymouth could alter the four current positions, but it would require them to win, Charlton to lose, and a six goal turn around. It looks speculative to say the least.

At the other end, Bury and MK Dons are down, plus Northampton (barring a nine goal win against Oldham…..), so only two sides continue that battle – Rochdale and Oldham.

This brings us neatly onto our first bet. Such is the situation at the bottom, Northampton would need to set more than a few records against Oldham to retain their League One status. The reality is, that just won’t happen, and the market has reacted by installing Oldham as the even money favourites in this as a result. It could be that Northampton completely drop their hands in this one of course, but equally they could turn up and finish the season in committed fashion in front of their own fans.

Let’s also factor in that Rochdale face Charlton elsewhere. A draw would be enough for Charlton in that one, so it’s very reasonable to imagine a scenario where the clock is running down in that one, with Charlton holding the ball. Should that scenario play-out, then Oldham could well deploy a similar tactic towards the end of this one – given that a point would see them safe as well. That’s also the case of course if Charlton are winning at Rochdale.

Now consider how Oldham can really be an even money shot. They are more motivated of course, but that’s pretty much where any justification ends. They’ve won just once in 11 now, and have only three away wins all season.

With so much of the book % taken out by Oldham, we’re going to back the draw in this one. There are more than enough reasons to think this could become appealing as the match progresses.

1pt Northampton v Oldham to be a draw at 13/5

Scunthorpe broke Plymouth’s hearts on Tuesday, and look fair value to finish their regular season with a fifth successive win against Bradford this weekend. We saw in our analysis on Play-Off criteria that there is definitely value in finishing 5th rather than 6th in terms of achieving a Wembley berth, so they at least retain some motivation.

This week’s visitors are Bradford who have finished the season in terrible form since the turn of the year. They have won just three of their 20 matches since New Year’s Day – the same time as they last won a match away from Valley Parade.

It is possible Nick Daws could make a couple of changes ahead of this one to freshen up his most dependable players, but that could even be a positive after a long run of games. It could therefore be value to back the home side in this one at a fraction of odds-against.

1.1pts Scunthorpe to beat Bradford at 10/11 (Sky Bet)

Finally, another side in the play-offs facing a team whom they should beat are Shrewsbury. Paul Hurst has been my manager of the season personally, taking a side with an extremely modest budget and over achieving in the extreme. Were it not for an incredible performance by both Wigan and Blackburn, they would be preparing for the Championship, and they could yet end up with 90pts this season – a total which would have been enough for promotion in 17 of the last 22 seasons.

Shrewsbury face MK Dons this week, and Paul Hurst looks likely to begin honing his starting XI towards that which he will take into the play-offs after resting a few players in recent weeks. That has delivered a mixed bag of results, but nothing to be overly concerned with.

MK Dons are on a run of six straight defeats and have now conceded 11 goals in three away games. With relegation now confirmed, they may well opt to leave out those players who are set to leave the club in the summer, which could mean a few younger squad members get their chance this weekend.

3pts Shrewsbury to beat MK Dons at 5/6

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