Swansea v Southampton

If you got a pound every time the pundits called this one a massive relegation six pointer, there’s a fair chance you’d end this evening a relatively rich man. There is absolutely no doubting the magnitude of this one, and as such, we’re rolling out another episode of Loss Aversion Syndrome punting. Either side losing this one would be an absolute disaster.

Both are locked together on 33 pts presently, meaning only a draw would keep West Brom in a position to save themselves on the final day. Swansea play Stoke on the final day, while Southampton go to Manchester City. What that means, in short, is that Southampton cannot afford to lose tonight – that would leave them needing to beat Man City on the final day. A draw would also be tricky, but would at least give them a decent chance.

Similarly, defeat is not an option for Swansea tonight. If that happens, they will need a massive goals turnaround on the last day of the season to catch Southampton, and it would surely be a mountain too great to climb. The switch up would be at least eight goals depending on the score tonight.

So neither side can afford to lose, and that has to make the draw a compelling option. Already this season, Southampton have drawn seven times away to bottom 14 clubs – (out of 12 matches) and overall they have drawn 12/25 against those sides.

The stat is somewhat weaker for Swansea, but 8 draws from 24 starts still suggest the odds of 23/10 are slightly too long for another tonight.

3pts Draw at 23/10 (Betfair Sportsbook)

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