Championship Play-Offs

Fulham-Aston Villa-Middlesbrough-Derby. Can’t argue with that after 46 games can we? Preston always looked they might have been batting a little above their station, while Millwall simply left things too late in all honesty. It’s probably fair to say most neutrals will be quite happy with that outcome to get stuck into.

Our research recently highlighted that finishing in 3rd place is a distinct advantage when it comes to entering the play-offs. It’s a better indicator for likely success than having the best goal difference, or finishing the season in the best form.

Both of those are pointers though, and when you put the three together, you have an interesting trend – in 22 seasons, and 66 play-offs campaigns across the three Football League divisions, nine of the 16 sides who have ended up in 3rd, with the best GD AND with the best 6-game form have gone on to win the Play-Offs. That’s a 56% strike rate.

So let’s dive straight into considering Fulham – who meet all those factors. The Goal Difference factor is probably less useful than in many season’s – while their end of season +33 is very good, they are up against some other strong performers over the duration of the campaign. Steve Bruce’s Villa are +30, while Tony Pulis ends the season +22 – the same as Derby under Gary Rowett.

When it comes to final six game points, Fulham ended with 13pts from a possible 18 – the same as Boro, and three more than Villa. Those who want to pick holes in Fulham’s odds of 7/4 might suggest that they bottled it on the final day, and will see their heads drop as a result. I don’t think so. They beat all of the big boys over the second half of the season and literally no-one in the division came close to their second half of the campaign consistency. The Cottagers collected 56 points in the second half of the season – a full 10 points better than Millwall in second place!

Historically, the winner of the 3rd/6th place semi-final has gone on to win 41 of the last 66 (62%) play-off renewals across the three divisions (and 13 from 22 in the champ – 59%) When you consider that Derby collected just 31 points in the second half of the season (with a goal difference of just +5 in that time frame), and that they won just seven points in their last six games, you get the feeling Fulham are in the driving seat.

For us, it’s the Cottagers all the way, and 7/4 looks a great punt all things considered, and we might then enjoy at least a season of Ryan Sessegnon before the biggest clubs come preying.

4pts Fulham to get Promoted to the Premier League

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