French Ligue 1

Just one point above the drop zone with two to play, you could forgive Lille fans for begining to fear for their top flight survival hopes, and with St Etienne still to come after this weekend's match again Dijon it's becoming a must-win match. The bookies certainly agree with that synopsis, quoting Lille at just 8/15 to get the job done against Dijon.

It's a fair enough argument, but we'd like to take a slightly different take on matters.

For a start off, Lille are where they are, because of performances over 36 games of the season. They have collected fewer than a point per match over almost an entire season, and have won just five matches at home, so to imagine they will suddenly play with the freedom needed to dominate Dijon just feels a leap to far for us.

Dijon are heading towards a comfortable finish this season - they are just a point off the top half, and six behind a European qualification spot. While it's certainly true their away form has been suspect this season, they are surely good enough that they shouldn't be trading at 13/2 to win this one.

A point could end up being enough for Lille, and they will certainly be scraping hard if they find themselves behind. That makes the Draw No Bet feel the better play here on the away side at 22/5.

1pt Djion to beat Lille (Draw No Bet) at 22/5

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