Rotherham v Shrewsbury

The Millers come into this League One Play-Off as strong favourites to win - quoted at no longer than 11/8 to win the match within regular time, and Shrewsbury as long as 23/10 to achieve that feat.

The put that into laymans context - that would be about the state of the book were these two sides considered exactly equal in terms of ability, but Rotherham were enjoying home advantage.

Starting with the first part of that equation, should these sides be considered equal in terms of ability overall?

Shrewsbury collected 87 points during the regular season, with a +21 goal difference to show for their efforts. Better on the points front than Rotherham (the Millers got 79) but pretty level in terms of goal difference at +20. Previous research has shown that goal difference is a strong correlation metric to following season performance, so it's fair enough to say on that evidence we can't easily split the pair.

End of season form is close as well - Rotherham collected 17pts (and +3 GD) over the past 10 games of the season, while Shrewsbury got 13 pts (and -1 GD). Of course, the Shrews were rotating for part of this. Expand the same to the past 14 games however, and again you cannot split the pair (23pts apiece, Rotherham +3 GD and Shrewsbury +4 GD).

Fair to say Rotherham aren't any better on paper then.

Now what about home advantage? With the venue being Wembley, were somewhere neutral, but it is true that Rotherham will take a bigger travelling fan base. Shrewsbury should have somewhere in the region of 12,000-14,000 heading down, while Rotherham are expected to be closer to 16,000-18,000. Hardly a huge difference, especially given a swelling from neutral fans as well.

With all this in mind, I'm struggling to see how Shrewsbury are such big outsiders on a neutral venue.

A couple of quick stats while I'm thinking about it add to the case. Over the past 22 years, 37 sides who finished in 4th reached the final - only 13 of those have gone on to win it (35%). Over the same period, 42 sides who finished 3rd reached the final, with 25 winning (60%)

Back to this renewal, and Paul Hurst would like nothing more than to proceed at the expense of his former club - he played over 400 games for the Millers - a true one-club man. But it is in management that he seems to have really found his calling. Starting out at Ilkeston, achieving promotion to the Conference North after winning the Northern Premier League Play-Offs at their first attempt.

Next stop was Boston United, and another Play-Off success the following season - beating Bradford PA in the Conference North Play-Offs.

A third play-off success followed a couple of seasons later at Grimsby in 2014/15, as the Marriners climbed back into the Football League under Hurst's guidance.

So three play-off final victories in less than 10 years as a manager, and a better than 50% win record marks Hurst out as a man destined for big things [As an Ipswich fan, I'm desperately hoping he ends up with the Tractor Boys - Ed]

We're backing the more experienced manager to continue getting the formula right here.

2pts Shrewsbury to beat Rotherham at 23/10 (General)

2pts Shrewsbury to win Promotion at 6/5 (General)

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