Applying Elo ratings to Internationals

With plenty of International matches going ahead in the run up to the world cup, there are a great deal of factors that need considering before having a bet. We aim to consider as many of these as possible, but such is the number of games going on, you need to have something to help identify the possible value matches to assess beforehand. Our choice is often Elo ratings, which are completely pure ratings given to football teams to assess team strength.

First designed by Mr Elo to apply to chess rankings, they were later adapted to football, and can be collected regularly from a number of online sources for both Club and International soccer. Using a reasonably straight forward formula, and knowing whether a match is to be played on a neutral venue or at one teams home ground allows us to generate a pretty decent "Draw No Bet" price, and let us hone in on a few matches to start checking out the value. Here are our picks for Saturday.

Austria v Germany

The basic Elo numbers back Austria about a 9/2 shot in this one on the Draw No Bet, and Germany 2/9. They rank Germany 2nd in the World and Austia 35th. Germany could mix things up a bit here, but its going to be the World Cup squad of course, and anyone out of that starting XI will be playing for places. On balance, that makes the 8/15 about Germany look about right in this one.

Elo differential (accounting for home advantage) = 230

England v Nigeria

Both sides have positions to play for here, but England have a big advantage playing at home. The younger squad could see England begin to slip down the Elos so you might argue they are over-rated at the moment, but another view point could suggest more competition for places now will kick the young lions on. England are rated 7th in the world on Elo with 1941 points (Yes... really!!!) and Nigeria 43rd on 1693. The numbers make England about 1/8 and thats about in line with the market. We see no reason to disagree.

Elo differential (accounting for home advantage) = 260

Sweden v Denmark

An all Scandanavian affair here and the Danes are considered marginally stronger. Both sides are making final preparations for this one. Sweden are ranked 20th (1796) and Denmark 18th (1843) so once you've factored in home advantage for Sweden we could see a pretty level game. Elo makes the Swedes slightly more likely to win, and once again it's hard to disagree too strongly. The Elo draw-no-bet comes out at around 8/11, with Sweden marginally shorter.

The rhetoric around this one could well continue to be around how Sweden perform since the loss to retirement of Zlatan Ibrahimovic 12 months ago, but look at results since 2010, Sweden actually do marginally better without him, then with him! Winning 58% of matches played without him compared to just 52.8% with him!

Elo differential (accounting for home advantage) = 53

Montenego v Slovenia

Now this one does interest us - mostly because Montenegro often seem to be underrated, and the same could be true here. Montenegro have actually passed Slovenia in the Elo scale now, and also in the FIFA rankings. With home advantage that should make them decent favourites in this, and the adjusted ratings make them 111 point favourites, which equates to around a 1/2 chance on the Draw No Bet, and certainly shorter than the 6/4 generally available on them winning this match with a number of firms.

While Stefan Savic and Steven Jovetic are notable absentees for the hosts, the squad performed well when drawing with Bosnia last week, and they should be trusted to continue improving.

1pt Montengro to beat Slovenia at 6/4

Belgium v Portugal

Don't even bother trying to apply Elo here. Cristiano Ronaldo is missing, and any man with 81 goals in 149 games for his country is going to be missed. He gets an extended break for this one.

Belgium are ranked 9th in Elo rankings, three places below Portugal, but the points are close and it will be intriguing. It's fair to say competition for places is at an all-time high in the Belgium camp and I'm happy to make room for a tiny bit of gut-feel in this one and suggest Coral's 19/20 is too long on the hosts, who name a fully fit squad.

Since 2013, Portugal have played 19 matches without Ronaldo, with a 9-4-5 record. With him during the same time frame they are 27-10-6. When you consider many of those matches he missed were against weak opposition (the last five four instance included Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, USA, Mexico and Cyprus you get a fuller picture).

2pts Belgium to beat Portugal at 19/20 (Coral)

Iceland v Norway

Finally, and another matches where the market just doesn't seem to want to accept the consistent evidence that suggests Iceland know how to play football these days. They are a small nation, but their players are all playing in decent divisions and they bring a powerful, organised game to the table.

Iceland are ranked 22nd on the Elo scale, compared to Norway's 55th, and they are also on their way to a World Cup so will be taking this seriously as a final opportunity to get things right before things get serious. With home advantage, Iceland should be around 1/4 favourites on the Draw No Bet, and certainly shouldn't be odds-against to win this one in our eyes. The rankings largely agree with FIFA as well, which is always a decent back-up despite the less than ideal way in which FIFA apply their numbers.

Since the start of 2017, Iceland have a 8-1-5 record, and 3-0-0 in games played at home. In fact, Iceland have won seven straight matches at home, and that record stretches to 14-3-1 going back to 2013 in home played matches only.

Norway by contrast have been 5-2-4 and are 2-0-4 in matches played away - one of those wins coming against San Marino

4pts Iceland to beat Norway at 23/20 (BetStars and Boyle Sports)

Recommended Bets Recap

1pt Montengro to beat Slovenia at 6/4 (General)

2pts Belgium to beat Portugal at 19/20 (Coral)

4pts Iceland to beat Norway at 23/20 (BetStars and Boyle Sports)

#Football