French Open - Begu v Garcia

Well this is an interesting one indeed. Not least because the bookmakers offer 9/4 about Irina-Camelia Begu. I wouldn't be bigger than about 11/8 if I was the sole market-maker and she has every chance of an upset in this one.

Ranked 40th in the World, Begu is actually inside the top 10 for clay only performances, with 906 ranking points from five events. Garcia is 7th on the overall rankings, but just 35th on the clay only standings with 419 points from 7 events.

Has she just been lucky to get those points on clay? The stats suggest not. Looking at the past three season, and only matches on clay versus Top 100 players, Begu is 26-13, while Garcia is 21-16. Begu has won 57.5% of service points, and 44.6% of recieving, while Garcia compares at 60.6% on serve and 41.2% against. Combined totals between the pair therefore see Begu at 102.9% and Garcia at 101.8%. In short there is nothing in it. Dropping the sample down to two year form makes little impact on those figures.

The previous clay encounters between the pair have been close as well, as they have share the wins one each, and three sets apiece each - both matches played within the last two seasons.

The market appears to be concerned with Begu's fitness, but there was nothing apparently troublesome in the opening rounds, and I'd be more concerned with how hard Garcia made things look against Shaui Peng to be quite honest. 9/4 is laughable with Paddy Power, and when that goes (which is surely will) then the 11/5 and 2/1 around will suffice.

4pts Irina-Camelia Begu to beat Caroline Garcia at 9/4 (PP)

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