French Open - Keys v Osaka

Sometimes you weigh up a match and have no idea where the bookmakers are coming from, and Keys v Osaka is definitely in that camp. They have made the American favourite, but she's not nearly short enough in my eyes.

Keys has a 2-0 head-to-head advantage, winning hard court matches in 2016 (as a 1/10 favourite) and then again in 2017 at Indian Wells as a 2/5 favourite.

All the metrics make Keys a very stong favourite in this one - looking at their last two seasons data from clay court events against Top 100 players, Keys won 60.1% of service points and 46% of receiving points - a handy combined 106.1% making her just about elite level. Oasak by contrast won 56% of service points and 41.7% of receiving points - a combined 97.7%.

There was a little 4/5 when the market first opened, by unfortunately we missed that, but the 4/6 still around still represents good value in my eye, and I'd have this one closer to a 2/5 shot.

3pts Madison Keys to beat Naomi Osaka at 4/6 (Genera)

1pt Keys to win 2-0 at 17/10 (UniBet)

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