World Cups - Groups C and D

Group C

The Group of three - with France, Peru and Denmark all coming here expecting to progress. Only two of them can. Australia will be happy with the big distances in Russia (they travelled more than 250,000miles in qualifying) but they will likley make the long return journey after the first three games.

France look to have all the quality in the world through their squad, but whether they can bring it together to be better than the sum of it's parts looks unlikely Didier Deschamps just doesn't seem to know who or how to play to unlock the obvious potential.

Peru are a team we really like. South American sides have a great record recently (see our Continents piece), but surely won't have enough to go deep into the tournament, while Denmark are sold enough throughout and have the supreme Christian Eriksen to boost them when the going gets tough.

One angle to remember in this group is that the winners play Group D runners up, and vica versa. There could be an opportunity to avoid meeting Argentina in the last 16 which we should bear in mind immediately after the conclusion (or during play) of the Group D second phase games.

First bet has to be Peru to qualify. France are clear favourites, but after that the market looks insulting to Peru to make them twice the price of Denmark. Marginal outsiders perhaps, but nothing like that. They are ranked 10th in the world for goodness sake. With some doubts about France, it wouldn't be the biggest World Cup upset ever if they messed things up, and with that in mind I can't resist the 2/1 on Peru to qualify.

Staying with Peru, Paolo Guerrero is their leader and inspirataion, and he looks fair value at 3/1 to top score. He takes all the penalties and should be the man they look to as they play their break-football.

For France, they could be potential World Cup winners, but also could go out in the Group stages. I don't think they will, but where I see the value is in Olivier Giroud, who continues to be a man who can be trusted amongst a plethora of options for France. He's 50/1 to top score, and playing for a team who are just 11/8 to reach the semi-finals, that has to be a cracking price. I'd actually prefer the 40/1 with Paddy Power for the six places they offer in fact. If he does win it, France could well be crowned World Champions, and we'll chuck in a small bet on Giroud/France as a top scorer/team winner double.

13/24 Oceanic or Asia sides have propped up their groups over the last six years, and Australia look a side in disarray at the moment. They will surely follow suit in such a strong group and the Socceroos to finish bottom of the Group is one of the best bets we've found. SkyBet almost certainly have Tim Cahill too short in their top scorer market there too - he's 4/1 there, but at 38 and lacking match practice recently, he surely wont get much pitch time to win that market. Instead look to Mile Jedinak who has already scored 18 times for Australia and will be on penalty duty. He's 7/1

2pts Peru to Qualify from Group C at 2/1 (General)

1pt Paolo Guererro Peru Top Scorer at 3/1

1pt e/w Giroud Top World Cup Scorer (PP 6 places 1/4) at 40/1

0.5pts Giroud/France Winner/Top Scorer Double at 150/1 (Will Hill)

4pts Australia to finish Bottom at 19/20 (Black Type)

1pt Mile Jedinak to be Aussie Top Scorer at 7/1 (General)

Group D

There are no mugs in Group D (perhaps Nigeria a little), but neither is there a strong World Cup contender according to the market.

Of course Argentina struggled in qualifying, but with Messi, Higuain and Aguero it is still a surprise to see them as long as 10/1. A deeper look and you can see a potential run to the final which could see them play Spain, Germany and then Brazil suggests that the price is perhaps realistic afterall. They will have their backers at that price, and Messi has all the ability to win games alone, but any off day and the midfield and defence looks to have unresolved questions and they haven't played the same starting XI in any of their last two years' worth of matches. They've rarely had the same manager even.....!

I know there are many who are happy to highlight Argentina's vulnerability as prosective Group Winners, but wiht Croatia, Nigeria and Iceland as rivals I actually make them slight value at 8/11 to win the group here. and that's my opening angle in the group. I'd back them to be joined by Iceland, who despite a few recent wobbles have the crux of a very good squad. They showed their ability in the Euros, and are only ranked four places lower than Croatia despite playing many of their freindlies away from home which is never ideal for improving your FIFA ranking. At 7/2 they look fair value to qualify given how poor African sides tend to do at World Cups (something we don't see changing just yet).

2.2pts Argentina to win Group D at 8/11 (Betfair)

1pt Iceland to Qualify from Group D at 7/2 (BetVictor)

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