French Open - Mens Final

The King of Clay, Rafael Nadal, is not done yet. He's already won the French Open a record 10 times from 13 attempts, and has an amazing 98% win ratio at the event. That means, on average, he's been a 1/50 shot to win his matches here. Over an incredible career, he's played in 114 finals on the main tour, with 64 of those played on clay (37 on hard, 7 on grass, 5 on Indoor Hard and 1 on carpet). He's won 88% of those clay finals, meaning 56 of his 78 career titles have been done on the red dirt. In short, he's a freak.

By contrast, Dominic Thiem has played just 16 finals, with a 10-6 record. 13 have come on clay for an 8-5 record, but he's not in the same league.

Our model has makes Nadal around a 1/10 shot in this one - a lot shorter than the market at 2/9, but who likes reading a tipster suggesting backing that sort of price?

Instead, the 3-0 looks the way forward here, with Nadal dominating all the stats. We expect the Spaniard to win something in the region of 68% of service points and 44% of receiving points, while Thiem will be around 56% of service points and 32% of receiving points. He's going to find it very difficult to claim a set. Nadal is 6/5 to win this 3-0- something he has acheived in of 42 of 53 clay court 5-setters over the last six years, including when the pair met here last season.

There's not a load of interest in the stats based markets, but in new news, we are close to completing what we beleive will be a big jump forward on our stats model, which should make this a really great angle for Wimbledon!

2pts Nadal to win 3-0 at 6/5 (General)

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