World Cup - Groups G and H

Group G

We know all about this group don’t we. We have England – a side not without a chance given they have proven Premier League ability throughout, and the devastatingly effective Harry Kane upfront. English expectations finally appear to match actual reality, and while we definitely have a chance of getting some-way into the tournament, neither do we see a load of star performers queueing up to write the next chapter in the history books,

That’s something that a few Belgians might need to do now or never. Roberto Martinez’ side are 11/1 to win the tournament, and with Eden Hazard (27 years old), Jan Vertonghen (31), Axel Witsel (29) and Dries Mertens (31) all in their prime, this is surely their chance. Add in Romelu Lukaku, Kevin de Bruyne and Thibaut Courtois and you have a very good squad. They scored an excellent 43 goals in qualifying, scoring at least twice in all but one match.

Panama are going to be the whipping boys, at their first World Cup and with a squad who would have performed much better in Mexico. In the likely starting 11 we have Blaz Perez (aged 37), Alberto Quintero (30), Gabriel Gomez (34), Felipe Baloy (37), Luis Tejada (36) and Jaime Penedo (36). To say legs might be arguing with brains is probably a fair statement. They also qualified from a Central American group with negative goal difference before enduring woeful results in the build up against mediocre opposition.

Then we have Tunisia, a side who thanks to injuries and tinkering come here with just 177 caps between them – the next least experienced are England with 242 so it’s a considerable short fall. Their main hopes lay in the goal-scoring prowess of Youssef Msakni, but a tournament ending victory leaves them short of goals, and this group should really be a two horse race.

For the best bets in the Group, first it’s worth considering Romelu Lukaku. He tends to score most his goals against lesser opponents, and with games against Panama, Tunisia and then one of Colombia, Japan, Poland or Senegal, he should get his chance. He grabbed 11 goals in 8 qualifying appearances (closest rival was Hazard on six), and also has 33 in 67 for Belgium – nearly a goal every other game. De Bruyne has scored 14 in 60 (0.23 goals per game), Hazard as 21 in 84 (0.25 goals per game) and Mertens 13 in 67 (0.19). Lukaku should surely be shorter than 2/1 to finish as top Belgium scorer. He could even claim the Golden Boot if things go well for him.

We’ll also be well against Panama for whom age looks a big issue. In Belgium matches, we expect goals – 80% of their competitive matches since WC 2014 have seen over 1.5 Goals, and 64% Over 2.5 Goals, and event 52% Over 3.5 Goals

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2pts Lukaku to be top Belgium scorer at 2/1 (Bet365)

3pts Panama to finish bottom of the group at 4/6 (Betfair Exchange)

2pts Panama to score zero points 2/1 (General)

Group H

This really is the group where anything could happen, and I’ll level with you straight away – I’m struggling to call much against the odds, or the general rhetoric that is going round. There are decent arguments to be made about the steady Poland side, who have every chance of progressing, about Colombia being stronger for the re-emergence of Falcao as a force who could help push his side onwards to new heights, and for Senegal having enough proven talent to really kick on now. Plenty of respected judges are talking up the Africans, but I can’t see it personally. Nevertheless, in such a tight group, it’s hard to find a really strong angle.

That is until you come to Japan that is. The Blue Samuri suffered a chance in leadership as recently as April, and also struggled to come through final qualifying. They finished top of the group in the end, but ultimately only a point better off than Saudi Arabia and Australia, and we’ve already made the case for those sides being pretty poor. With a number of key faces missing, and questionable final preparations to say the least.

2pts Japan to finish bottom of Group H at 11/8 (Boyles)

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