Egypt v Uruguay

Friday 15th June – 1pm

Match Odds: Egypt 13/2, Draw 14/5, Uruguay 8/13

Expected Penalty Takers: Egypt – Mo Salah, Uruguay – Suarez (probably)

If you haven’t tipped Uruguay as your World Cup dark horses this year, then you are definitely drinking alone. Outsiders against the biggest footballing nations perhaps, but dark horses they are not given how well fancied they are by so many. With Edison Cavani and Luis Suarez up top, they have arguably the best strike pairing in the tournament full stop. We’ve already backed them to win the group, and at 8/13 they look short enough already to beat Egypt in this one to be honest.

Instead we should perhaps put our money where our mouth is in this group and continue looking towards a pretty dour set of matches – with this one leading the way for lack of action. For all their abilities up front, Uruguay matches never feature many games, which could be as much to do with the Atletico pairing of Jose Gimenez and Diego Godin. It’s a trait which Egypt fans saw as well. In fact, only 4% of Egypt’s matches sine World Cup 2014 have featured more than three goals and 76% have ended up Under 2.5 Goals.

Uruguay saw an unusual 32% of matches go Under 1.5 Goals in the same period, and this could be a cagey affair, and may come too soon for Mo Salah to show his best form.

We’ll take a very small bet on Under 1.5 Goals at 7/4 with Marathon Bet, and also take a punt on Uruguay winning “to nil” – the South Americans won eight of their 11 winning matches without conceding since the last World Cup and also had a couple of 0-0s. Egypt could be a little one dimensional through Salah, and we’re not yet convinced he is totally fit.

Finally, at time of writing, there are no markets available on team cards, but Uruguay received considerably more in the qualifiers (on a per match basis) and would be interesting to back to receive the most in this match despite being favourites.

1pt Under 1.5 Goals at 7/4 (Marathon)

1pt Uruguay to win to Nil at 5/4 (General)

#Football