Morocco v Iran

Friday 15th June – 4pm

Match Odds: Morocco 27/20, Draw 2/1, Iran 29/10

Confirmed Penalty Takers: Morocco - Hakim Ziyech, Iran – Ashkan Dejagah

Iran qualified from the Third Round of Asian qualifying with easy, conceding just two goals in ten games. The standard was relatively poor of course, and not a great deal is expected of them in this World Cup, but the real concern will have been the fact that they managed just a goal a game in that qualifying group, and score no more than two against any of their rivals. In fact, Iran drew 0-0 three times in that ten game run, and won a further four matches 1-0. It was about as unconvincing as you could get as unbeaten group winners go. It was a similar story in the second round, where they leaked just three goals in 8 matches, but their 26-3 goal difference was massaged by two 6-0 thumpings of Guam and putting seven past India. Let’s just say Carlos Queiros comes from a certain era of tactics in the global game.

If Iran’s stats are pushing us towards a low scoring game, then Morocco only help cement that assertion. They qualified from their African group with a 3-3-0 record, and scored 11 with none conceded. They did well to see off Ivory Coast – securing things with a 2-0 away win, while they also faced Gabon and Mali.

Since Brazil 2014, Iran have kept clean sheets in 77% of their competitive matches, while the corresponding stat for Morocco is 68%. Against a tournament average of just 50%, that looks pretty compelling, while only Peru failed to score in more than Morocco’s 37% of matches.

A defeat in this match would be as good as ending the tournament on Day 2 for either side, so a cagey affair between two European coaches who know how to kill games looks more than likely, and despite the short odds, the 11/2 about their being No Goal Scorer in this match (always better than backing 0-0 remember) could be worth getting in the satchel nice and early.

Given what a strong contender the draw is, we are also going to support our fancy here (Iran) to win 1-0. It was tempting to back them on the Draw No Bet given the high chance of 0-0 coming home, but if they do win, there is every chance it is 1-0, and that matches the 15/2 with Paddy Power look a better alternative.

1pt No Goalscorer at 11/2 (BetStars)

1pt Iran to win 1-0 at 15/2 (Paddy Power)

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