Costa Rica v Serbia

Sunday 17th June – 1pm   

Match Odds: Costa Rica 4/1, Draw 13/10, Serbia 10/11   

Penalty Takers – Costa Rica – Currently Unclear, Serbia – Dusan Tadic    

The market has really been getting excited about Serbia over the past couple of weeks. They are a decent side of course – having topped Group D above the likes of Ireland and Wales, but they certainly didn’t dominate and it wasn’t the strongest group. A FIFA ranking of 35th is probably harsh, but an Elo rating likely to be nearer the mark at 23rd in the world suggests they aren’t world beaters. That compares to Costa Rica, whom Elo rates 27th in the world and FIFA make them 25th best.

My concern about Serbia is the defence, which looks to be ageing at just the wrong time. We could see Branislav Ivanovic (34), Antonio Rukavina (34), Alexsandr Kolarov (32) and Dusko Tosic (33) making up the rear-line and that’s at least one World Cup past their prime.

In 17 competitive matches since the last World Cup, Serbia have kept clean sheets in just six, which given their group is pretty poor really. At the other end, Mitrovic has warmed up with a hat-trick this week for his country and looks on-fire, but he’s spent a year in the Championship and has hardly demonstrated himself ready to dominate on this stage.

Costa Rica reached the Quarters at the last World Cup, but it’s fair to say that there isn’t a lot of really known talent in the squad. They will rely on hard work and being well drilled to perform as a unit, and in Oscar Ramirez at the helm they have a man with no top flight experience. Keylor Navas may once again be pivotal to their chances.

I expect this to be a classic counter attacking Costa Rica, and with the age of the Serbia defence, that’s a dangerous situation for the Serbs. The market move on Serbia has surely put Costa Rica into value territory now in our eyes. They are 12/5 with UniBet on the Draw No Bet market, which looks appealing.

1pt Costa Rica to win Draw No Bet at 12/5 (UniBet)

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