Croatia v Nigeria

Saturday 16th June – 8pm

Match Odds: Croatia 8/11, Draw 27/10, Nigeria 5/1

Expected Penalty Takers: Croatia – Luka Modric, Nigeria – Unclear

This is a match where we have a really strong view, and we’ll crack straight into it. While Croatia only came through Group I in second place, they have a decent 15-8-3 record in competitive matches since Brazil 2014. In the likes of captain Luka Modric, Ivan Rakatic and Ivan Perisic they have potentially the best midfield three in the tournament, and Mario Madzukic knows where the net is with 30 goals in 82 caps. Back-up comes from Nikola Kalinic and Andrej Kramaric, who are both capable finishers. They also have a really settled team – 12 players participated in nine or more games in qualifying (our of 12) with eight of those playing at least 10. In short, they know each other well. Elo ratings make them around the 17th best team in the world, but that’s probably selling them short.

Since Brazil they have also achieved a 44-13 goal difference in competitive matches – and their recent qualifying group contained Iceland, Turkey, Ukraine and Finland – hardly international push overs.

They come up against Nigeria – a side we don’t rate highly. The squad looks pretty young, and there are plenty of players involved who haven’t set the world alight in their domestic lives. Iheanacho has been proficient at Leicester, but nothing more, Victor Moses good at Chelsea (but nothing more) and John Obi Mikel has his best days behind him in all likelihood. Another we know a lot about Alex Iwobi, hasn’t kicked on like Arsenal had hoped this season.

All this, in a European based tournament, leads us to believe the 8/11 on Croatia is a terrific price, and this will probably be one of our bets of the first round of games.

4pts Croatia to beat Nigeria at 8/11 (General)

#Football