Colombia v Japan

If you read our preview on Group H, you’ll know we didn’t have a strong view either way here. Senegal are plenty of people’s picks to surprise, but our analysis of the continental performance over the past six World Cups suggested Asian sides may continue to struggle against European and South American opponents.

So far, of those coming out of the Asian/Oceanic route, we have seen Saudi Arabia thrashed 5-0 by Russia, Iran take a 1-0 victory against Morocco, Australia lose 2-1 to France and South Korea beaten 1-0 by Sweden.

Saudi Arabia provide a decent bench-mark to Japan – they finished with just a point between then in Group B, with Japan winning their home match between the pair 2-1 and losing the away leg 1-0. Japan also suffered a change in management in April, and warmed up for the World Cup by drawing 1-1 with Mali, losing 2-1 to Ukraine, losing 2-0 to Ghana, losing 2-0 to Switzerland and then beating Paraguay 4-2. Hardly ideal.

With that in mind, coupled to the fact Colombia came out of a tough qualifying heat and have Falcao back on-song, ensuring the reliance on James Rodriguez has diminished.

With Colombia available at 4/5 with a number of firms, they are our small bet in this one, while we’ll also chuck a point at the 1-0 correct score given how many close matches we’ve already seen this tournament – six of the 14 matches have ended that way so far.

1pt Colombia to win the match at 4/5 (General)

1pt Colombia to win 1-0 at 5/1 (Bet365)

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