Russia v Egypt

Tonight’s match, and we are going down the Penalty route once again. With the introduction of VAR we have seen an uptick in the number of penalties awarded, and whilst it’s always dangerous to jump on these things too late in something like a World Cup there could still be some juice in this one.

As the tournament progresses, it’s likely to revert back towards more normal levels, as 1) defenders get a little more cautious about how they are behaving in the area, and 2) Referees are instructed to bring things back to usual expectations.

Nevertheless, as it stands we’ve seen penalties in eight of the 16 games so far, so odds or 11/5 about a repeat in this on tonight do seem a touch generous – especially with the hosts involved where the referee will be keen to ensure criticism isn’t pointed his way if he missed one.

Mo Salah is back in the Egypt team tonight, and it will be interesting to see his impact. He’s absolutely key for the Egyptians, and was involved in almost all their goals when he played in qualifying – either as a provider or a scorer. His fitness remains a doubt though, and you have to think if he was unable to take any part in a match just five days ago, is he really going to be the man to lead them out of trouble tonight? I’m not so sure, and as a result, Russia feel a spot of value in my gut.

1pt Russia to win at Even Money (General)

1pt Penalty Taken at 11/5 (Paddy Power)

#Football