Uruguay v Saudi Arabia

Uruguay will qualify for the knock-out stage with a win against Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, and it’s a pretty solid outcome in our eyes given how poor the Saudis were on the opening day. Of course, they may have been affected somewhat by the energy sapping Ramadan period – we’ll never know precisely how much impact that had, but it’s likely it contributed to the nature of the defeat. Uruguay are a decent side though – solid at centre half and quality in abundance up top in the shape of Edison Cavani and Luis Suarez but at a best price of 1/4 there cannot be much value left in the odds. Indeed you’re only getting 4/7 about the South American’s on the (-1) handicap, so if you were looking for a bet on the match markets, you’d have to get with Saudi Arabia in the handicap markets I’d suggest.

Another game, and another penalty on Tuesday night, as Mo Salah kept his cool from the spot to give Egypt a consolation goal against the hosts who are really enjoying this World Cup so far. It’s an angle which may not have much longer left, but that strike on Tuesday moved to nine of the opening 17 matches having penalties – an implied odds-on shot. Some of this might be due to variance, and some might regress towards the mean, with referees and defenders calming it all down a touch. For now though, the 2/1 looks fair about a repeat in this game – especially with two such handy strikers marauding in a packed penalty area with Saudi Arabia likely to face their fair share of set plays, and setting up in a 5-4-1 formation to frustrate and play on the counter.

1pt A Penalty Awarded in the match at 2/1 (General)

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