Denmark v Australia

We covered a good deal of the Christian Eriksen goalscoring exploits in our Peru v Denmark preview, and make no apologies for going over those stats once again, and the Dane looks overpriced in this one - especially given the rise in penalties we've seen thus far.

Eriksen grabbed 11 of Denmarks goals in qualifying - equating to 44% of their overall goals, and Denmark are a stronger favourite in this than they were against Peru. Looking at the total goals quotes, and supremacies in this game, we'd expect Denmark to score something around 1.4 goals on average in this fixure, and Australia nearer 0.85.

That means the Danes should be in for around 62% of goals. Quotes of 6/1 about Eriksen therefore put him at somewhere in the order of 25% of Denmarks expected goals, and that's arguably too low given recent history. You could back him at 4/1 to be the first Denmark scorer, but we'd lean towards the 6/1 on him opening the scoring - made even better by the prospect of a penalty helping us out here.

At risk of getting boring, we'll also advise a small bet on a penalty getting awarded in the match at 21/10 with Paddy Power. In the first round of games the Danes conceded a penalty to Peru, while Australia both scored and conceded penalties against France. It's given the Mile Jedinak Top Australia bet a nice early boost and another would be lovely.

1pt Christian Eriksen to score first at 6/1 (Bet365, Others)

1pt Penalty Awarded at 21/10 (Paddy Power)

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