Germany v Sweden

Just in case you missed the twitter tip earlier, a last minute (and very short) update ahead of the evening match. (and if you did, follow @Stattobets to ensure you dont make the same mistake again)

The penalty rate continues to go through the roof this World Cup - Carlos Vela's conversion was the 14th penalty awarded in 28 games thus far - there were only 13 in the whole 2013 tournament, and VAR must be the culprit (if thats the right word when we've been collecting regularly).

With that in mind, we are backing a Penalty Scored at 13/5 with Paddy Power in this one, which looks a terrific price. We might squeeze one more day out of this market, but any longer and I suspect the value will diminish into the point at which a regression towards the mean suggests the bet won't be value for much longer.

Timo Werner has been the bright light coming through the German ranks, and despite a poor opening match, he has the nod to start tonight, and is probably a smidge of value at 9/2 to open the scoring. He's scored eight goals in 15 appearances, but only 11 of them have been starts. With Thomas Muller moving out to operate in a wider role, he should benefit from decent service and space, and looks worth a small bet.

1pt A Penalty Scored at 13/5 (PaddyPower)

1pt Werner to Score 1st at 9/2 (Bet365)

#Football