Brazil v Serbia

So first the permutations. A draw or a win is enough for Brazil to qualify, although they may need to win to finish top of the group. For Serbia, a draw could be enough, but only if Costa Rica can beat Switzerland by at least two goals.

Depending on what is going on elsewhere then, it’s likely Serbia are going to need to win this to qualify therefore – an eventuality which could see Brazil knocked out. This feels like an open game in prospect then, and the first stop should be a look at the Under/Over Goals Markets.

Brazil are 8/15 favourites for the match, and with Neymar, Coutinho and Jesus, will surely pose more problems for Serbia than they’ve managed so far. Serbia aren’t the best at the back either – they conceded 10 in qualifying in 10 matches – a goal a game then against the likes of Ireland, Wales, Austria, Georgia and Moldova. 53% of their competitive matches since World Cup 2014 ended with Over 2.5 Goals, and 88% ended Over 1.5 Goals, while they failed to score in just 6% of matches. The 10/11 with Betfair Sportsbook feels a solid bet in this one.

Passions could run high, and with penalties the main talking point of the World Cup so far, and showing no signs of slowing down just yet, 2/1 on a penalty helping to determine the fate of these two has to be a spot of value again.

We won’t go nuts on this one – the FIFA MOTM looks a much more open affair than in many games, and how this game plays out could see a big swing in what we expect as things develop, so it pays to keep stakes relatively conservative.

2.2pts Over 2.5 Goals in Brazil v Serbia at 10/11

1pt Penalty Awarded in the Match at 2/1

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