Mexico v Sweden

Permutations: Mexico could miss out on top spot if they lose and Germany beat South Korea – amd depending on how things play out, that could even eliminate them. Sweden need to better Germany’s result if they want to qualify, but given the Germans are 2/9 to beat South Korea, it’s a pretty big ask, unless they can do enough to jump Mexico.

Given what we’ve seen so far, Mexico would surely be shorter if they needed to win, but you wouldn’t blame them for playing out time come the latter stages if things are tight. That brings the draw into the equation more than it might usually be the case, and they will attack from the word go.

Goals feel the way to attack this one therefore. Can Mexico really afford to sit on a level game? It would be a dangerous game to play given that we expect Germany to win. Goal difference would see them knocked out if that happened. Can Sweden afford to be patient when they need to force the issue? Again, probably not.

Over 2.5 Goals appeals at 5/4 with Bet Stars, while Over 3.5 Goals is 10/3 with the same firm. That’s got to have a little juice if this ends up with Mexico counter attacking against a committed Sweden.

We’ll keep going on the penalty angle as well – 2/1 with Paddy Power is the top price on a spot kick being awarded in this one, and you can get the same price with Bet Stars.

Finally, we’re starting to like the MOTM market, and Marcus Berg will be charged with leading the line for Sweden. He’s well enough known to the global voting audience, and looks decent value at 9/1 to claim the prize in this one.

2pts Over 2.5 Goals at 5/4 (Bet Stars)

1pt Over 3.5 Goals at 10/3 (Bet Stars)

1pt Penalty to be awarded at 2/1 (Paddy Power)

0.5pts Marcus Berg MOTM at 9/1 (General)

#Football