Japan v Poland

With Poland already eliminated, Japan should be the more motivated of the two, and it’s possible that we’ll see a few of the fringe members of the Poland squad given a run out here before they make the relatively short trip home. Japan will qualify with a draw from this group, and with the identity of the Group G winners unknown, they would probably be as happy with qualification as they would be as group winners.

The bookmakers are struggling to split the three possible outcomes in this – Japan are 17/10 with Betfair Sportsbook, Poland are attracting the money right now, and are into 15/8 at time of writing, while the draw is 23/10 with Bet365.

While Poland have failed to catch light in the opening two games, it’s a small sample from which to write off a side who are ranked 50 places higher than Japan in the FIFA ranking, and 28 places higher on the Elo scale.

Given that a draw would suit Japan, and they should experience a good kick in the event that Poland open the scoring, it seems a reasonably likely prospect – certainly more likely than the 23/10 on offer anyway. Poland will surely not want to limp off into the sunset without at least turning in one competent performance.

The stand out bet in this one has to be in the MOTM market, where Robert Lewandowski is an absolutely crazy 8/1 to take home the champagne. He’s the most recognisable face involved by a country mile, and also the most likely goalscorer by a distance (He’s around 5/4 to score – his nearest rival in that market is Shinji Okazaki at 12/5). It looks a solid bet.

1pt Match to be a draw at 23/10 (Bet365)

2pts Lewandowski to win FIFA Man of the Match at 8/1 (Betway)

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