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Wimbledon Mens

  • Writer: Dave Pilgrim
    Dave Pilgrim
  • Jun 29, 2018
  • 3 min read

The Mens draw was done on Friday morning, and it's got to be great news for Roger Federer, who as top seed, has been drawn into the top half of the draw. Over the past two grass court seasons, Federer has an 18-1 record against Top 100 players, comes into this straight off the back of a tournament win, and final appearance in his other warm-up, and preparations exactly matching those of previous seasons. Federer returned last season to win his 8th title here.

His biggest rival may well be Novak Djokovic, who is begining to look like being something back to his best - his warm-up performances have certainly seen him putting in some elite level numbers, and he deserves respect. This season he has a 4-1 winning record on grass, and having won 75.4% of service points and 39.2% of receiving points, he's back to his best. Few will maintain a return game like that.

Djokovic is in the same side of the draw as both Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray. Nadal has taken time to relax and recuperate since the French Open, and given he hasn't been past the fourth round for five years, the 7/1 holds little appeal.

Andy Murray surely can't be many people's picks, given he's spent almost a year on the sidelines now. He's opting to play, but five set matches aren't a great place to continue a comeback against top players.

That might leave the improving Alexander Zverev as the best challenger to Djokovic. His 67% Service Points won in the surface looks a touch low, but if he can improve in that area, he does posess a decent return game, so will have opportunities.

In the top half, Marin Cilic or Milos Raonic seem the most likely contenders - with the former the strongest player. It's just a shame he will need to play Federer to reach a final - a man who is 9-1 against him.

All in all, the Swiss is a confident selection at 7/4 in this one.

In Quarter 2, Cilic and Raonic would meet each other in the fourth round potentially, with the winner likely to face Grigor Dimitrov in the quarter finals. At 17/2, the Bulgarian looks decent value given he looks to have a clear enough run to that stage and could spring a surprise if Cilic and Raonic have battered each other in the previous round.

In Quarter 3, Djokovic reached the final of Queens in style, dominating Millman, Dimitrov, Mannarino and Chardy, and he is surely value at 13/8 to reach the semi-finals with Betfair and Paddy Power. He's playing well enough to swat away the challenges from Nick Kygios, Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem.

In the final quarter, Nadal has strong numbers over the past few seasons despite what results have shown, but I just dont have the confidence to back him at just a short price given his last of success over the last five years on grass. Juan Martin Del Potro looks a better bet at a bigger price, and the 17/2 available about the Argentine kicking on once again look fair to me with Paddy Power.

2pts Roger Federer to win Wimbledon at 7/4 (General)

1pt Grigor Dimitrov to win Quarter 2 at 17/2 (Sky Bet)

1pt Novak Djokovic to win Quarter 3 at 13/8 (General)

1pt Juan Martin Del Potro to win Quarter 4 at 17/2 (Paddy Power)

 
 
 

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