Brazil v Mexico

If you believe what everyone is saying, Brazil have looked poor in the group stage. That Costa Rica match made sure everyone said that. They are wrong though.

They looked decent enough, and the data supports that ascertain. That they got to the 90th minute without scoring against their reasonably local rivals was nothing more than poor fortune.

Come the end of the group, Brazil finished top on seven points, and actually qualified with something to spare. The opening match against Switzerland was never going to be easy, but they dominated throughout and will have felt aggreived to end up drawing after 15 shots on goal to just five from the Swiss. Against Costa Rica, they managed 20 shots on goal, and didnt face a single on target effort from their rivals, while it was similar against Serbia - 11 shots versus seven against, and six on target compared to just one.

Mexico by contrast snuck through on six points, and would have been eliminated had Germany scored at the death rather than South Korea. Rolling back, it was the opening match which really did it for Germany - they managed 21 shots on the Mexico goal without scoring and a similar defensive thashing in this one would surely not be so kind to Mexico. The truth is they escaped with three more points than they should have in that match, and in a group of four, thats a hell of a false start to get away with.

So we're backing Brazil here while the market is less than convinced, and the best way might be in the handicap markets, with Brazil available at 6/4 to win by two or more goals (Brazil -1).

1pt Brazil (-1) to beat Mexico on the handicap at 6/4

#Football