Croatia v Denmark

Croatia made all the headlines in the group stages, as they finished top of Group D, winning all three games, and thrashing Argentina 3-0. All very impressive, and with Modric, Peresic, Rakitic and Madzukic amongst their number, they are certainly a classy outfit. The bookmakers offer them at 17/20 ahead of their match against Denmark, which implies around a 71% chance of qualification. For all their ability, that's too much respect in our eyes, and the value probably sits with Denmark in this one.

The Dames finished second in Group C, behind a decent looking France, and despite scoring just twice in qualifying, we should remember their final match was a dead rubber with France in which neither side appeared hugely interested. While they qualified courtesy of the play-offs following a second place finish in qualifying group E behind Poland, the same was true of Croatia.

Only eight places split the teams on the internatioanl Elo scale - Croatia on 1956 and Denmark on 1890, and those rankings would suggest a more level match that the current bookie prices.

Denmark are fairly reliant on Christian Eriksen for their goals, and as a result, we shouldn't expect a high scoring affair here, and it could pay to keep the draw onside, so consider backing Denmark to Qualify at 11/5 with Betfair.

Eriksen is a 10/1 poke to open the scoring in the match, and that also appeals with UniBet. There is no way that a man who is so key for his side should be behind no fewer than six Croatian threats, and looks to be more a case of media rhetoric running away about the Croats.

For a game where Under 2.5 Goals is as short as 4/9 with a lot of firms, the draw also feels over priced at 12/5, and it looks worth backing this game to reach extra time at those odds as well.

1pt Denmark to Qualify at 11/5 (Betfair)

1pt Match to be a Draw at 12/5 (BoyleSports)

1pt Christian Eriksen to be 1st Scorer at 10/1 (UniBet)

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