England v Sweden

It's all about Harry Kane today. The bookmakers will be hoping, while punters will be be hoping he does enough to land the numerous first goal scorer bets, RequestABets, and that he edges closer to that Golden Boot.

With six goals already in the tournament he has six of England's nine goals this tournment - and he didnt even play against Belgium!

In fact, he's now scored in his last six in an England shirt, and nine of his last ten. In those ten matches he has netted 14 of England's 23 - or 61%.

So let's get straight into the maths. If England are expected to score something in the region of 1.5 goals in this one (based on a total goals of around 2.25 goals in the game, and them being around 0.7 goals per game better than Sweden on a neutral ground) - both taken directly from the main markets, then for Harry Kane to be a 5/4 shot to score in the game you'd have him in for around 0.57 goals per game. That would balance out then at around 38% of England goals.

With the rise in penalties in the World Cup (remember Kane will be on penalties), and the way England have built around their captain, the 5/4 on offer with Sky Bet looks slightly too long here, and that's our play in this one. By the same logic, the Harry Kane 1st goal price is probably a shade long at 3/1 with a few firms.

This is also bound to be a tight game - nothing is going to persuade either side to risk losing the match in the first half, and as such we're going to take a small bet on a potential correct score - 1-0 to England at 5/1. It feels more than winnable.

1pt Harry Kane to Score at Anytime at 5/4

1pt Harry Kane to Score 1st at 3/1

1pt England to win 1-0 at 5/1

#Football