Championship Picks

Welcome back. The 2018/19 season is well up and running and our model is just about ready to start producing it's picks. A quick reminder - our model works by estimating expected goals based on each teams' shots, shots on targets, shot dominance, and league specific home/away historical bias. This gives us a short list to take apart, from which we make our picks.

Sheff Wed v Ipswich

Mick McCarthy has left Ipswich, but his replacement Paul Hurst looks unlikely to appease fans who were upset at the negative brand of football being played by the Tractor Boys. It's a harsh reality that when you have no budget in this division, you have to try and win dirty, and Hurst will be working from exactly the same brief as McCarthy. He's a great appointment in my opinion, but not one to deliver open games.

Ipswich have allowed thier opponents just 36 shots against them in their four games this season - the best in the division after Blackburn, while they have had just 45 themselves. It's a similar story with shots on target - they have managed just 9 themselves (the lowest in the division) and 11 against - bettered only by Blackburn.

Wednesday look equally toothless, and they look destined to struggle this season. All things considered this could be a pretty poor game, and Under 2.5 Goals looks a cracking bet at 8/11.

Nottm Forest v Birmingham City

Birmingham have scored just twice in four matches, are winless, and 20th in the division, but there have been enough sighs to suggest they should be higher in the ladder had luck been a little more on their side.

They won the shoto count 18-8 against Bolton but went down 1-0 in midweek, dominated Swansea 17-6 (6-0 on target) in their goalless draw, and were arguably the better side up at Middlesbrough as well. Only Norwich have matched them on the shot counts so far, and they are surely better than the table suggests. No side has achieved more shots against their rivals in the division.

Forest are a decent side themselves, but don't look to have clicked in the way Wolves did last season (whom they are modelling their recruitment approach upon) and the 7/2 on Birmingham is big enough to warrant a small interest today.

Recommended Bets

3.3pts Under 2.5 Goals at Sheff Wed v Ipswich at 8/11 (Betfair)

1pt Birmingham to beat Nottm Forest at 7/2 (Unibet/Betfred)

#Football