US Open Day 4

We've followed a pattern over the opening few days of the US Open, putting our money on matches where the bookmakers were struggling to split the players. We'll take a slightly different approach on day 4.

Fognini v Millman

This is a match where I believe Fognini may be getting overrated by the layers based on his recent form which saw him win in Los Cabos. It was a great performance, which saw him beat Juan Martin Del Potro in the final, so has to be respected, but we should also remember that Fognini has only infrequently replicated his clay form on other surfaces.

His career 104-108 hard court record is nothing compared to 389-222 on clay.

Millman stormed through the first round, beating Jenson Brooksby 6-4 6-2 6-0 and his 213-120 hard court record shows just how much he likes the surface. Of course, much of that has come against less players, but he's more than capable on these courts.

Looking at the hard-court only rankings, Millman is ranked 37th, while Fognini is 55th despite that recent trophy. At 2/1 with Uni Bet, Millman is worth a second look.

1pt Millman to beat Fognini at 2/1 (UniBet)

Benneteau v Struff

Julien Benneteau has been chalked up as the outsider in this match, and that's a surprise given the surface preferences for these two over their careers.

Frenchman Benneteau has played a respectable 33% of his matches on the surface, splitting his time pretty evenly with clay and the faster surfaces. He's 6-9 on the surface against top 100 players over the past three seasons.

Struff by contrast is 11-19 on the same metric, and it's a surface he avoids like the plague. Only 85 of his 675 matches have been on hard courts - a miserly 12%. He's also got an overall losing record and the German surely can't be trusted at odds-on prices as a result.

I'd be closer to 4/5 on Benneteau in this one, so the 11/8 with Ladbrokes or UniBet look value in my eyes.

1pt Benneteau to beat Struff at 11/8 (Ladbrokes / UniBet)

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