Leeds v Middlesbrough

Our model has this game coming out with an expected goals of something in the order of just 2.2 goals, and that is perhaps no surprise in a fixture involving two sides expected to be there or thereabouts come the end of the season, with one managed by Tony Pulis.

Boro are yet to concede a goal at home in the league so far, beating Sheffield United, Birmingham and West Brom, while only Swansea have managed to score more than once against Leeds all season.

At the other end, don’t be fooled by Leeds netting 14 already this season – that’s well above their expectations so far this season - getting to that total from just 65 shots is definitely an outlier – they won’t be scoring a goal from every 4.6 shots for the rest of the season - of that we can be quite certain.

Leeds have Liam Cooper fit again, but the form of Jansson and Berardi could keep him out of the starting XI. With or without we should see Leeds making things hard for Boro, while the visitors will open the game with the intention of taming the Leeds attacks and slowing down the game.

1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 1.88 (Betfair)

#Football