League Two

Plenty to get stuck into in League Two, starting with Forest Green Rovers against Port Vale. We tipped Forest Green at a nice price last week – fortunately really given we hit a fair few losers around them, and they should be trusted to get the job done once again and continue their strong start to the season. They are unbeaten in eight, which included a confidence boosting 4-0 win over Cheltenham in the EFL Trophy on Tuesday. Their shot data after six league games reads 84-50 and they are 26-17 in shots on target. All in all a very good start to the season, and enough to cope with the loss of striker Christian Doidge to Bolton this week.

Port Vale could only muster a 20th place in League Two last season, and are currently sat just one place better off after six games. Realistic expectations this season might well sit somewhere in the range of 12-16th in the table based on early form – their shot data reads 72-84 and 26-26 on target.

1pt Forest Green to beat Port Vale at 21/20

Grimsby have started the season badly under Michel Jolley despite high expectations from some of their fan-base. They’ve won just once in the league so far, so will have been relieved to get the points against Notts County in the EFL Trophy. Success in that competition is a distant second in priorities compared to survival in the football league though, so they will want to see an improvement in the shot data that so far shows them out as the worst rear-guard in the division – a whopping 91 shots against in 6 games. It wouldn’t be as bad were they creating at the other end, but so far they perform poorly on that metric too, and could be in for a tough season.

They travel to Bury this weekend who have so far adjusted to life in League Two reasonably well. They’ve been the better team in all six of their matches based on shots on goal alone, and should be a top-half team this season at the very worst. The price is starting to move on the Shakers now, and the 4/5 looks worth snapping up before it goes any shorter.

2pts Bury to beat Grimsby

Finally, Northampton can slay Cheltenham at odds-against prices and continue to heap misery on a side who have started the season poorly.

Northampton certainly look a stronger team this season based on the early data and sitting 18th in the table belies a decent start performance wise. Four points away from home is probably a fair reflection on their three matches away from Sixfields, but at home they’ve undoubtedly been unfortunate to have just a couple of points – they dominated Cambridge (2-2 in the end) and Lincoln (0-1), and might more reasonably have taken seven points from those three matches. Had that been the case, we’d be looking at a team in the top 6.

Cheltenham are down in 21st in the division, and are probably about where they should be. They stole a win at Cambridge, but probably got unlucky against Carlisle, but away from home they have been poor – 45 shots against for just 25 themselves. They should be up against it here.

2pts Northampton to beat Cheltenham at 4/6

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