Scottish Round Up

Starting in the Championship, Queen of the South couldn’t do enough to land us the tasty odds last weekend, but they more than matched Inverness, who only managed a single effort on target against them. We’re going to keep the faith this weekend as they take on much more modest opponents in the form of Alloa.

Queen of the South have won the shot-count in every match they have played this season, with an overall tally of 86-44 in their favour, and 37-13 in on-target efforts. Despite sitting in mid-table, all the metrics which should matter at this stage of the season suggest they could well be the best side in the division, which bodes badly for Alloa, who are among the worst in the section. Their shot data so far reads 52-83 and 17-40 in on target efforts. That’s left them with just three points from seven matches, and we reckon Queen of the South could be worth backing on the handicap market, giving up a goal.

1pt Queen of the South (-1) on the handicap at 17/10

Staying in the Championship, Dunfermline can take advantage of Falkirk’s struggles with a much needed away match. The Pars have been solid enough this season without getting due rewards for their efforts, and while Falkirk can be pretty sure of a relegation battle this season, Dunfermline should have much higher hopes for the campaign.

Shot data thus far reads 71-45 for the Pars, albeit just 21-29 on target, while Falkirk have been woeful at the back – 49-92 and 21-39 on target. Their -17 corners ratio also reveals a team who are struggling to contain their opponents, while Dunfermline make the majority of the running in their battles and have a 46-25 corner advantage so far this season.

Dunfermline are odds-against, and again, it’s a price which won’t last in our eyes. 27/20 is available with Bet365 at time of writing, and another odds-against looks acceptable.

2pts Dunfermline to beat Falkirk at 27/20

Dropping down into League One, and Stranraer look a team whose 6th place in the league massively flatters them. They have won just twice so far this season, and lost four of their five cup matches so far. They thwarted our Brechin bet on Saturday of course, but the home side did everything but win the game in that one. They have conceded 75 shots over their last five matches, managing just 40 themselves.

Dumbarton aren’t amazing themselves this season – actually sitting below Stranraer in the table, but all the data suggests they are a considerably stronger side and should win this one with something to spare. Their shots-on-target ratio is up there with the best, and while they have needed to be pretty efficient to be in that position, it’s a good sign for the season ahead of them.

1pt Dumbarton to beat Stranraer at 29/20 (Bet365)

Our second pick in League One is Brechin, ahead of their trip to Airdrie. Odds of 21/10 are available on the away side.

As mentioned, Brechin were dominant against Stranraer without getting the job done on Saturday, so will have been put through their paces this week and better will be expected in this one. Airdrie were busy being dispatched ruthlessly by Arbroath, and that meant they have now mustered just a single win from six matches. Brechin on the other hand are now unbeaten in five and just start needing to turn draws into wins.

Brechin have a shot-ratio of 55% so far this season, while Airdrie’s is just 46% - the second worst in the section. They have leaked the most shots on target as well in the entire league – 50 against, and it’s probably fortunate that only 13 have ended up in the back of the net so far.

1pt Brechin to beat Airdrie at 9/4

Down in League Two, Stirling Albion travel to Cowdenbeath in a match between two sides who are yet to really hit any sort of form. Just 11 points have been gathered collectively, but Stirling will fancy their chances in this one.

Let’s start with Stirling – who have a -8 goal difference after their opening eight matches. That looks tremendously unlucky on the basis of the under-lying stats – their shot tally reads 69-75 - hardly too shabby, while they have a positive corner difference. They lost 3-0 at Albion Rovers last week, but the hosts had literally three shots – all ending in the back of the net!

Cowdenbeath have been absolutely dominated in a few matches recently – losing 1-0 to Edinburgh in a match where they lost the shot count 19-4, and it was a similar story against Peterhead and Queens Park, with both sides making light work of them on the data despite Queens Park not ultimately being able to win the match. 19/10 is available on the away side and that surely won’t last until Saturday.

1pt Stirling to beat Cowdenbeath at 19/10

#Football