Bolton v Blackburn

Sky Sports have picked a good old-fashioned Lancashire Derby match for their tea-time Championship match this weekend, and it looks set to be an absolute cracker.

Blackburn came up from League One last season, and were widely expected to put up a better fight than Bolton might manage this season, but after 11 games the are split by just two goals, and are level on 15 points each. Blackburn have perhaps been unfortunate to draw six games already, and had a couple of those gone one way or the other they might be on the edge of the play-offs.

There is little doubt Bolton are set for a tough season - a (-37) corner difference after the opening 11 games is a notable trend, and they have looks pretty woeful on the shot data so far (96-168 shots and 30-43 shots on target). Blackburn are nothing great themselves through - 120-145 and 40-47 respectively, and it's those stats that suggest Bolton are probably being slighlty under-rated here.

Making a case for one of the worst sides in the section is always difficult, but we bet based on prices, and when they are 5/2 at home to a side almost as bad, we have to put our faith in the underdogs. Football is a game determined on very fine margins (average of just 2.6 goals per games means luck plays a bigger part than in most sports) and these odds have to be backed on this occassion.

While we are on the match, this could be a firey affair, and having Darren Bond in charge should help ensure cards get dished out. He's refereed 51 matches since the start of last season and shown four or more cards in 26 of those. Throw in that this is a match which often ignites, and we need to be on cards. The last 3 matches between the pair have produced 7, 9 and 4 cards. Bet365's Over 3.5 Cards looks great value.

1pt Bolton to beat Blackburn at 5/2 (UniBet)

2pts Over 3.5 Cards at 4/5 (Bet365)

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