League One - Best Bets

Doncaster are our headline pick in the third tier as they look to cement a strong position towards the top of the division against Fleetwood.

They are unbeaten at home so far with three wins and two draws and should be pretty confident ahead of this one after four wins in their last five outings, and against a Fleetwood side without a win in six - four of which were at home!

No side has produced fewer chances in the division this season - just 98 shot in their opening 11 games, and just 40 on target. All the metrics make Donny a much better outfit, and their market drift - out to almost even money now - makes them a bet to get the job done in this one.

2pts Doncaster to beat Fleetwood at 97/100 (Marathon)

Peterborough are five points better off than Barnsley after the opening exchanges in the division, but we remain convinced that they are more than riding their luck thus far and things will start to nose-dive for them sooner or later.

Equally, Barnsley continue to impress, and could argue their credentials for being the best side in League One. They were less than ruthless against Plymouth on Tuesday so an improvement will be demanded this weekend down at Peterborough, and the data tells us they have every chance.

Barnsley have managed 175 efforts on goal this season (next best is a distance 149) and have also limited their opponents to just 75 against their goal (the next best is 88). With a +45 corner difference they look absolutely dominant whichever way you cut it.

Peterborough are at the opposite end on these metrics - 186 shots against is the worst in the division, and their 15 goals against shows it. More interesting it their 28 goals scored - achieved from just 124 shots and 59 on target. A conversion rate of a goal every 4.43 shots is just bizarre, and will not continue indefinitely.

It's also worth looking at the corners in this game. Barnsley have won the corner match bet in 9 of their 10 games this season, winning an impressive 77, with their opponents getting just 32. Peterborough by contrast have won the corner count just once in 11 starts, and are missing the width than Gwion Edwards gave them last season. They have won just 49 this season, conceding 85 to their opponents - an average of 8.8 per game at home!

1pt Barnsley to beat Peterborough at 23/20 (Bet365)

2pts Barnsley most corners at 4/5 (Sky Bet)

#Football