Rangers v Hearts

Celtics slow start to the 2018/19 SPL season has helped frame this match as a potentially important game when it comes to deciding the fate of the title this year. Of course, the Bhoys are still 2/5 favourites for the title, but the winners of this match will mark themselves out as the most likely contenders if Celtic continue to falter, and as such its a tremendously important match.

The bookies are rating Rangers the far superior side - quoting no longer than 8/11 about a Gers' victory, and we're convinced that is an over-estimation of their abilities. Good yes, but not that much better, and they probably shouldn't be odds-on in this one for a number of reasons.

Let's start with the basic performance data so far this season. Rangers have achieved an 83-68 shot tally for an un-exceptional 55% shot ratio. It improves notably to 65% when looking at on-target efforts (43-23) to be fair. They have reaped a 15-7 goal difference from that, which means they have probably marginally over achieved thus far, but only marginally.

Hearts are top of the table with 19 points from seven matches, a +10 goal difference (13-3) and a victory over Celtic already in the bag. Their shot-data shows 121-63 for a 66% shot ratio, and it's bang on the same for on-target efforts (44-23). With a goal from every 9.31 shots compared to Rangers' 5.53 shots, there is no doubt that Hearts might have scored more than they have done this season. A +23 corner difference adds to the tale.

Neither side are carrying any significant injury concerns into the match, but Rangers' should surely be the more jaded of the pair after playing on Thursday in midweek, while Hearts were resting up and preparing for this match.

1pt Hearts to beat Rangers at 4/1 (Betfred)

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