Goals Galore in Portugal

In our Euro round-up we spotted a couple of matches where the goal lines might have been pitched a touch low based on the early season shot data. In Portugal you tend to get a goal, on average for every 7.3 shots, and one for every 3.15 shots on target. That's taken as a weighted average over the last three season. We tend to expect something in the region of 2.7 goals per game on average.

Two matches are of interest today - Boavista v Aves and Portimonense v Sporting Lisbon.

In the former, Boavista are being projected almost three goals on their own on our model, with Aves likely to weigh in with at least something of their own. The overall match projection for total expected goals is coming out not too far short of 4 goals in this one, and the quotes of around 11/8 on Over 2.5 goals look absolutely massive.

Portimonense have been a pretty attacking outfit this season without getting their rewards. They have scored just six times from 84 shots - 28 of which hit the target. With similar numbers in the "against" field, they should be involved in a few higher scoring matches this season. Lisbon will expect to win this one, so will come out in a positive frame of mind. They have managed 84 shots on goal as well, with 57 against in their opening six matches. Over 2.5 goals is 8/11 in this one, and that looks worth building into a double.

1pt Over 2.5 Goals Double - Boavista v Aves and Portimonense v Sporting Lisbon at 3.25/1 (Marathon). Plenty of other firms are an acceptable 3/1 on the double as well.

#Football