EFL Trophy

It's a difficult competition for punters, but a little bit of homework and a little bit of luck can pay dividends in this tournament, and with a full schedule lined up for Tuesday we've picked out four picks we think are worth backing.

Since the start of the 2016/17 season, Football League sides have had a good advantage over the U23 Premier League 2 sides. The kids against men simply hasn't worked at first glance. 2016/17 saw League One sides record a 28-10-8 record over the U23 sides, and League Two sides were 19-10-15, so not too shabby either. Targetting matches where they played against Premier League 2 - Division 2 sides was particularly profitable - League One sides going 21-5-2 in those match ups and League Two sides 9-3-7.

More recently things have changed somewhat, and the bookies have caught up somewhat also. League One sides this season are 3-5-3 against U23 sides, while League Two sides are 4-1-3. Small samples, but enough to tread with caution. We need to evolove, and that's what the Football League sides have done - resting more players this season.

Walsall v Middlesbrough U23

First pick is Walsall, who play host to Middlesbrough U23s. Boro are already struggling in their division this year, and have lost all six of their matches in this competition since the rules changed to allow them in.

Walsall are flying high in League One, and have had a decent enough record in the competition. It's a surprise to find them as long as 4/6 in this one for a match they should fully expect to win.

2pts Walsall to beat Middlesbrough at 4/6 (Ladbrokes)

Plymouth v Swindon

League One sides have a decent record against their lower league opponents, but it could be worth opposing Plymouth when Swindon make the trip down.

The Pilgrims have a threadbare squad right now, and whilst several regulars returned to the starting line-up on Saturday, any rotation is very likely to involve more junior players getting their chance. It seems a reasonably likely scenario given how brittle the squad is right now.

Swindon are playing their final group match after beating Newport and losing to Chelsea U23s. A win would give them a great shot at qualifying, and they played a decent strength team against Newport.

1pt Swindon to beat Plymouth at 13/5 (Bet365)

Gillingham v Tottenham U23

Steve Lovell fought relegation bravely with Gillingham last season, and he's determined to improve their position this time around. He made his intentions towards this competition crystal clear in their opening match, where he changed almost his entire team so it's a reasonable assumption we could be looking at a reserve team coming out again.

Spurs have a decent crop of youngsters, and they may be capable of defying thier odds of 15/4 in this one. It's true they haven't racked up the victories, but they took a commendable draw at Crawley, and a win would put them in a decent position to qualify. They look worth a gamble here.

1pt Tottenham U23 to beat Gillingham at 15/4 (Boyles/Coral)

Mansfield v Wolves U23

Another side who have shown they are happy to rest players in this tournament are Mansfield. They made seven changes in their opening match - a 2-1 win over Lincoln, and they will also be keen to improve on last season's league performance after throwing plenty of money at it.

Wolves are top of the Premier League 2 - Division 2, having won five of their opening seven matches. A 20-5 goal difference suggests they are more than good enough for a slot in the top tier now, and they have recruited plenty of talent into their second squad.

The buzz around the club could be a factor in helping them nail a result here and they already got a point from a draw against Scunthorpe. At 7/2 they look on the long side.

1pt Wolves U23 to beat Mansfield at 7/2 (Bet365/General)

#Football