Segunda Value

Without too much on around Europe in the way of domestic football, we've pointed the model at the Spanish Segunda this weekend, with a couple of decent value picks on offer in our view.

Malaga v Albacete

Malaga have started life in the second tier well this season and this match sees the divisions most efficient defence tackle the least efficient - and there are very good reasons to beleive that Albacete's early season position is a significant overachievement on where they should probably be.

Starting with Malaga though, they are gunning for a fifth straight home win that would ensure they remain top of the table. They have allowed just 69 shots against in eight matches - 25% lower than the league average, and jusy 17 on target. They look solid picks to make an immediate return to the top flight.

Albacete finsihed a lowly 17th last season, and could be set for a similar season this time around. 116 shots against is a division lowlight, and the +5 goal difference so far which has led them to sit 7th in the table has more than flattered them based on the performance data.

2pts Malaga to beat Albacete at 7/10 (Will Hill)

Deportivo v Elche

This looks a match priced up more from reputation than genuine quality this weekend, with Deportivo quoted well odds-on with a best price of 4/6 on the hosts.

Elche, despite a modest position in the table, have ammased a commanding 62% shot ratio so far over eight game - 119 v 72. That compares hugely favourably to Deportivo's 79-87, but points have come easier for the latter.

It's easy to see why the bookies make the home side strong favourites,but the underlaying data suggests this should be much closer, and we're backing Elche on the handicap market as a result.

1pt Elche (+1) to beat Deportivo at 7/5 (Sporting)

Almeria v Las Palmas

Almeria are being under-rated in their match with Las Palmas - quoted at 11/5 to win the match. Whilst no world beaters, thier 47% shot ration (86-95) isn't too shabby, and they have a 2-1-1 record at home this season.

Las Palmas are the superior side of the two - confirmed in their performance data with a 98-79 shot advantage and 34-32 shot-on target metric so far. But that doesn't make them enormously strong, and it's hard to make them favourites in this one away from home. Our model makes the home side a play here.

1pt Almeria to beat Las Palmas at 11/5 (Bet365)

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