UEFA Nations League
- Dave Pilgrim
- Oct 13, 2018
- 2 min read
We've cast an eye over the International Elo ratings, to highlight a couple of sides who could be worth backing this afternoon.
We'll start up in Latvia, where home advantage can help Latvia overcome Kazakhstan - with the market rating them as underdogs in this one.
Neither side are very impressive. The visitors have won just twice in 17 matches now - with 2017 being particularly uninspiring as they recorded a 0-1-6 record. With an Elo rating of 1354, they are rated only slightly higher than Latvia (Elo 1343), so in truth there should be very little between the pair on a neutral venue.
Latvia aren't any more impressive of course - they have a 2-4-12 record over the past two years. Notably though, in Riga, it has been better - 2-1-4 - with wins over Estonia and Andorra. The defeats came against Portugal, Estonia, Switzerland and Azerbaijan.
1pt Latvia to beat Kazakhstan at 21/10 (Bet365)
Bulgaria v Cyprus
There is a gulf in class between these two, and the bookies don't appear to have quite that gulf built into their prices in this one. Bulgaria are a side on the up at the moment, with four wins from five matches over the past 12 months. They have beaten Norway, Slovenia, Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia, with their only defeat coming to Bosnia and Herzegovina. They also top their Nations Group table, and would love to give themselves a chance at qualifying for the European Championships, of which this is the golden opportunity. They now have an Elo rating of 1656, which puts them amongst company such as Iceland, Scotland and Greece.
Cyprus are ranked at just 1403 on Elo, and recent results bear that out - seven defeats in nine, losing to Norway, Jordan, Armenia, Georgia, Beglium, Greece and Estonia so hardly a who's who of International sides. They have only scored in three of those matches as well so they may well struggle to get on the scoresheet today. Indeed, away from home they have only scored against Armenia and Gibraltar since the summer of 2016!
2pts Bulgaria (-1) to beat Cyprus at 7/4 (General)
Comments