Stick with Majadahonda

Rayo Majadahonda left it late to slot in that terrific winner for us on Sunday night (92nd minute.....), but we are keeping the faith when they meet Sporting Gijon in Copa Del Rey on Thursday night.

Majadahonda are performing pretty well on the shot-data metrics this season in the Spanish Segunda Division - 118-120 in shots, and 40-40 on-target. That's slightly short of Gijon's numbers - 90-98 and 37-30, but there really isn't a great deal between the sides - backed up by the fact that the pair are locked together on 12 points after nine matches.

As far as their performance has gone so far, the hosts have probably deserved more than their seven goals so far this season - just seven goals from 118 shots (an average of 17 shots per goal) is a poor return for the levels they have been performing at.

Majadahonda are better than 2/1 to win this, which given Gijon have won just of their last five looks a shade on the long side. Our model brings it out somewhere nearer the 6/4 mark, so the 21/10 with a few firms looks worth backing.

1pt Majadahonda to beat Sporting Gijon at 21/10

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