Scottish Premier League

It's not usually a league where we uncover too much value, but we're confident there are some strong picks available north of the border this weekend, starting at Motherwell.

Steve Robertson's side are still looking for their first home league win of the season, having dran with Livingston and Rangers, and lost to Hamilton and Hearts, and St Johnstone surely give them a golden opportunity at odds-against prices this weekend.

Of course, it's hard to make much of a case for the Steelmen based on their recent form - four defeats and a draw in their last five matches, but shot data underneath their poor results provides enough evidence that results will turn for them sooner or later. Motherwell have a positive shot count for the season (75-74), and only a very slight negative ratio for on-target efforts - 33-37, and their position near the foot of the table is probably unlucky.

St Johnstone on the other hand are over acheiving in 8th place in the table. Not only do they have a -11 goal difference, but their -27 corner difference is another indicator that they have often been on the back foot. They have managed just 61 shots this season, with a whopping 142 against, and their shots-on-target ratio of 22-63 is absolitely abysmal. How Motherwell are available at 11/10 for this one is beyond us, and it's our NAP of the weekend.

6pts Motherwell to beat St Johnstone at 11/10 (Betfred / Betfair)

Celtic have never really had a sterling record against Hibernian over recent years - failing to put them to the sword in quite the same way they have brushed other sides aside in recent years. Over the past five seasons at Park Head, Cetic have won 1-0, drawn 2-2, won 1-0 and 3-0, draw 2-2 and 0-0, lost 0-2, and won 3-1 and 2-1.

Given the season Hibs are having, they are more than capable of putting up some resistance, and their +13 goal difference is currently the best in the division. On expected goals, there isn't the gulf we might usually expect at this stage of the season. Brendan Rogers will certainly start to feel the heat if things don't improve for the Bhoys soon.

Hibernian are as long as 11/5 on the handicap market with a goal head start which looks generous in our eyes. The chasing pack look much closer to Celtic this season, and Hibs are up there with Hearts as those who look mostly likely to create a genuine title challenge. We win the bet if it's a draw or an away win.

1pt Hibs +1 to beat Celtic at 11/5.

Finally, Hearts take on Aberdeen, and look slight value to get the points at decent odds-against prices. Hearts have had 136 shots this season, allowing just 76 against, while their on-target numbers are a none-too-shabby 48-29. That's delivered a 14-6 goals for/agg this season, and put them top of the table.

Aberdeen are enjoying a less successful season by their standards - currently sitting in 7th place and with just +2 goal difference. They are a full seven points behind Hearts already, and their shot data suggests they are about where they should expect to be. Their shot ratio is 50.3%, while shots-on-target are just 53.7% as well.

2pts Hearts to beat Aberdeen at 5/4 (General)

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