Serie A - Best Bet

Our shot-based model has chucked up a small bet in Serie A on Sunday, as Fiorentina welcome Cagliari to to Florence.

Fiorentina have scored 14 goals in thier opening eight game - due in part to some rutherlessly efficient finishing, whilst they have been solid at the back - conceding just six goals. They have been averaging 2.5 goals per game this season overall, and that looks pretty much spot on to what the shot data would expect as a projection.

For Cagliari however, things have been much tighter at both ends. They have scored six and conceded nine in their opening eight matches, with their shot data suggesting we would have expected them to score something in the region of 7.6 goals, and conceded around 10.8 - an average of 2.3 per game.

This match is a near pick-em on the Under/Over 2.5 Goals, and we make Under 2.5 Goals really decent value at 1.96 on the exchanges. Our model makes it closer to 1.70.

1pt Under 2.5 Goals in Fiorentina v Cagliairi at 1.96

#Football