League One - Tuesday

Doncaster were involved in quite an astonishing match on Saturday - drawing 3-3 with Gillingham, despite winning the shot count 32-3! It was quite an amazing feat from the Gills, who will surely never win a less deserved point again, and Doncaster manager Grant McCann will be challenging his players to make amends with a victory over Sunderland.

This is an important game for both sides - with each hoping for promotion this season. So far Sunderland are a single point better off in 3rd, while Donny are 6th.

Sunderland have been ruthless in their chance conversion this season - scoring a goal for every 5.5 shots, and 2.31 shots on target. The divisional averages for those stats are 9.3 and 3.5, so a regression towards the mean is inevitable. It also suggests their 26 goals this season are well above what they may reasonably have expected to achieve.

Doncaster have to have a chance in this one, and the 6/4 available with Betfair is too long here.

We'll also take an interest in the U/O 2.5 Goals market in this one, where we feel an entertaining match could be on the cards. Doncaster have seen 12 of their 18 games this season go "over 2.5 goals", including eight of their last 10. For Sunderland it is nine from 16 this season, and five of their last seven.

1pt Doncaster to beat Sunderland at 6/4 (Betfair)

2pts Over 2.5 Goals at evens (Marathon)

Our other picks is Blackpool, who take on Scunthorpe, who really chucked away their opportunities at Wycombe on Saturday.

Scunthorpe took a two goal lead in the opening seven minutes down at Adams Park before allowing Wycombe back into the game. At 2-2, the Chairboys went down to 10 men, but rather than take advantage, it was Scunthorpe who ended up conceding in injury time to conspire to lose the match. They have now lost three from four outings and their performance data suggests they have been pretty fortunate to occupy a mid-table position at the moment.

Blackpool on the other hand look terrific right now. They have lost just twice all season, and one of those came with a fully reserve side put out against West Brom U21s. Too many draws have hurt Blackpool this season - they are 7-8-2 in all competitions. If they could have converted just a couple of those draws into wins, we'd be talking about a side in the play-off spots, and I just cant have them as a 19/20 shot in this match.

2pts Blackpool to beat Scunthorpe at 19/20 (Maraton)

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