Europa Elo Interest

Regular readers will know all about the power of the Elo, and why it's well worth considering in Europa League fixtures. Getting a good feel for the relative strengths of teams across Europe's many national championships is never easy, and Elo ratings really help us out here. All our data is sourced from the excellent http://clubelo.com/UEL site.

The first match of interest sees Cypriot side AEK Lanarca take on Bulgarian Ludogorets. There isn't a great deal between the two leagues in terms of quality, with the top Cypriot teams generally ranking about 1520 on average, with most Bulgarian participants a little below that.

Ludogorets have dominated in Bulgaria recently - winning each of the last seven titles, but haven't progressed beyond the last 16 in the Europa League despite participating in six of the last seven years, and surely don't warrant being strong favourites in this match.

1pt AEK Lanarca to beat Ludogorets at 9/4 (UniBet)

On a neutral ground, I would struggle to split Copenhagen and Slavia Prague, and the Danes have now lost just one of their last 11 home matches in the competition - with Athletico Madrid being their conquerers.

Slavia Prague have been woeful travellers in Europe over recent years - winning just one of their last 16 away trips. The Elo ratings suggest Copenhagen should be close to 5/4 in this one, but I'd venture a little further based on the evidence and price them more like even money in this match up. The hosts are joint top of the Danish Superliga and should pack enough punch to justify 8/5 quotes.

2pts Copenhagen to beat Slavia Prague at 8/5

We all know the rhetoric about going to Turkey and just how hard it can be to play in the hostile atmosphere that Turkish fans create - but is it true?

Well in the case of Besiktas, absolutely is the answer. They have won eight straight matches at home in the Europa League since 2015 now, while over the same time frame have managed just two away wins from eight starts.

Genk have done well themselves on the road of course - winning five from eight on the road over the past couple of season, including wins at Lech Poznan and Brondby, but odds against quotes available on the hosts are too big to ignore here.

1pt Besiktas to beat Genk at 23/20

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