Bundesliga Best Bet

Nuremberg welcome Eintracht Frankfurt on Sunday, and the away side look to be considerably overachieving this season based on our data.

Expected goals performance suggests that Frankfurt should have scored around 12.4 goals, conceded somewhere around 11.5, and picked up around 10.8 points from their matches so far. In actual fact, they have bagged 19, leaked 12 and collected 13 points.

Nuremberg have been enjoying less luck. Their eight goals scored isn't far off their expectancies (9.1), but at the back, the 19 they have leaked has been way about the 11.8 they are expected to have conceded. That means, overall, we'd have reasonably have expected them to have 10 points in the bank at this point, rather than the eight they actually have.

There really isnt a gulf between these sides, and the 11/4 about the hosts is too big in this one.

1pt Nuremberg to beat Ein Frankfurt at 11/4 (Bet365)

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