Espanyol v Ath Bilbao

Monday night's La Liga action comes from Barcelona where Espanyol entertain Athletico Bilbao. The hosts are a handy fifth place in La Liga - a place above Real Madrid, and boasting a 100% winning record at the RCDE Stadium thus far this season.

Bilbao are standing a less impressive 17th in the table, with a -4 goal difference, and just ten points on the baord after 10 games. The main issue has been failing to get the job done - they have already drawn a whopping seven matches this season, so aren't exactly being thrashed about the park.

Espanyol should be pretty fresh for this one, with the first team last in action ten days ago (they sent a reserve side to Cadiz for their Copa del Rey match last midweek)

History is also well on Espanyol's side if you like that sort of thing. They last last a home league match against Bilbao in 1997/98, and since then have gone 12-8-0 over the past two decades. As I say, make up your own mind about whether that sort of thing really matters or is just patterns in the sand.

More worrying for Bilbao should be the expected goals data. Whilst Espanyol have a 142-128 shots count, and 61-36 on target, Bilbao's numbers are 113-137 and 34-42. That makes them one of the most toothless out there. Understat.com agree with our data - projecting Espanyol to be on 13.06 v 9.07 expected goals at this poiinit (not too far away from their actual 14-8) while putting Bilbao on 11.34 v 16.48 - again similar to their actual values of 11-15.

All this leads us to believe the even money quotes about Espanyol are decent value here. We make them solid odds-on pokes - perhaps nearer 8/11.

3pts Espanyol to bt Athletic Bilbao at evens

#Football